IAEA's Latest Report on Iran's Enrichment: Viewing Iran's Growing Progress

Nadene Goldfoot
Iran has raised its potential capacity of making nuclear material.  Iran has put in hundreds of enrichment machines at an underground site, Fordow, claims traces of uranium particles enriched up to 27%.  They had been producing at 20%.  They refuse to halt their activity.

Nuclear bombs need enriched uranium of 90%, but after getting to the 20% level, it's evidently easier to do.It takes the greatest effort to get to the 20%.  That should be the alert red-light sign.  The question is, just how long does it take to reach the 90%?

Fordow also now has a 50% increase by hooking up 368 new centrifuges.  They hadn't yet received material to enrich.  Their stockpile now is at 145 kg from 110 kg of 3 months ago.  So they have been busy enriching their stockpile.

For some reason Iran won't let the inspectors into Parchin, which is also a military base.   Differences still remain on the table where Amano of IAEA is dealing with Iran.  Are they trying to remove incriminating evidence from the eyes of inspectors?  They say they're not trying to make weapons.  They also said that attaining a higher level could happen out of technical reasons beyond their control.  How interesting.

Resource: http://www.jpost.com/LandedPages/PrintArticle.aspx?id=271473
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/47575005 Iran has enough uranium for 5 bombs 

Are Western Appeasers Following in Chamberlain's Folly?

Nadene Goldfoot
One of the things the Oregonian newspaper didn't report to us this morning was that Major General Hassan Firouzabadi, Iran's military chief of staff,  said that the Iranian nation is standing for its cause and that is the full annihilation of Israel.  He said this to a defense gathering in Tehran.  He continued in saying that the world should recognize the dangers imposed by the Zionist regime of Israel and the idea that Khamenaei considered defending Palestine as a religious imperative.  This is the religious leader defending the Muslim Arabs against Israel, who has had to fight since 1948 to keep their territory and not be driven into the sea, a territory that was declared a state by the U.N.  We conclude that if Iran gets a uranium capacity to manufacture nuclear weapons, they will no doubt use them first on Israel.  Persia had once been the Jews' arch foe from the days of Queen Esther and King Ahashueros when Haman plotted to kill all the Jews everywhere.  The ending of that story was that the tables were turned and Haman and his 7 sons were hung instead.

The UN's IAEA went through the motions of doing something to solve the problem by holding meetings in January and February 2012 in Tehran, Iran.  Then they met in Vienna, Austria on May 14th and 15th.  They said the atmosphere was "upbeat."  They talked about fighting cancer, food safety and security, water needs and other applications of nuclear technology.  Their main agenda was supposed to be  over Iran's disputed uranium enrichment program.  This is to be followed up with another meeting in Baghdad tomorrow, Wednesday, May 23rd.

Yukiya Amano, the director-general is the spokesman for this International Atomic Energy Agency  had visited Iran in 2009.  He said the meeting had been very useful.  His job has been to get Iran to allow inspections of a site they suspect has done secret tests for the detonation of a nuclear weapon which of course Iran ridicules.  They're talking about Parchin, which they had inspected back in 2005, 12 years ago.  They haven't even reached an agreement on a framework of the beginning of a compromise where Iran would stop enriching uranium to 20% purity.  In a trade-off Iran could produce their own fuel at a much lower rate which would not be usable for nuclear weapons.  Will they ever reach a compromise?

Look at the Ayatolla's goal in life.  The group is talking to an apocalyptic regime with leaders who believe it is their religious duty to bring in the 2nd coming of the Hidden Iman who plan to not be deterred from their sacred mission.  I ask again, what are the chances of compromise?

As for the United States, their invasion of Iraq is now being held against them as far as being in the negotiating business by Iran.  IAEA must have been a holdout at the time as Iran thinks they are independent of the USA so is going through the motions of bartering with them as if they were in a shuk (open market).  Saeed Jalili, Iran's top nuclear negotiator mentioned that his country was a "serious supporter of global disarmament and didn't want nuclear weapons to be spread about in the world either.  No, of course not, as long as they are the only ones who have them, I imagine.  He threw in that member states should use it for peaceful nuclear technology, but then they won't even go for inspections!  How weird can they get?

People do like deluding themselves as British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain did in his 1938 declaration that he had achieved "peace in our time."  Then the Nazis marched right through Europe and exterminated six million Jews.  Netanyahu said "I don't think Iran is serious about ending its nuclear program.  Iran is "very good" at buying time."  He was speaking in the Czech Republic with 6 other ministers to sign cooperation agreements who will give Israel their support.

What is all this meeting each other doing for Iran's cause?  Giving them time to finish what they have been building.  That's what Israel fears. Netanyahu said that Iran could be using talks as a game where they agree to something but do not do it, or agree to do something that wouldn't stop his own goal of making nuclear weaponry.  It's like a chess game and so far they are winning.   When they say, "know thy enemy, " take it to heart.  I might ask why the newspapers only give us the upbeat side of the story?  Doesn't any reporter on the wires understand Farsi?  Reporters in Israel understand and are not misquoting.

Resource: frontpagemag.com/2012/05/22/renewed-iranian-calls-for-israeli-annihilation/print/
Oregonian newspaper 5/22/2012  page A5 on uranium enrichment:  U.N. nuclear boss makes visit to Iran
http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_article.php?id=4388
Update: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/05/21/senate-passes-bill-imposing-sanctions-on-iran/

USA Dependent on 2003 Intelligence Assessment of Iran Having Nuclear Capabilities

Nadene Goldfoot
Iran got into the nuclear program in the 1950's with the USA's help which sponsored the "Atoms for Peace Program." 

The USA and the Western European government were involved in their program until 1979 when the Shah of Iran was toppled by the Iranian Revolution that put the Ayatollah in power.  The atomic program was temporarily halted and revived with some Western assistance.  They then created several research sites, 2 uranium mines, a research reactor and uranium processing facilities including 3 known uranium enrichment plants.

Bushehr I reactor was finished with major assistance from the Russian government agency "Rosatom" and opened on September 12, 2011.  Iran announced it is now working on a new 360 MW nuclear power plant located in Darkhovin.  It will be seeking more medium-sized nuclear power plants and uranium mines in the future. 

By November 2011 the International Atomic Energy Agency Board of Governors had rebuked Iran following their report about how Iran had undertaken research and experiments geared to develop at nuclear weapons capability.  Their report outlines in depth their detonator development, multiple-point initiation of high explosives and experiments involving nuclear payload integration into a missile delivery vehicle.  Iran rejected the report as it does with all things such as the Holocaust and accused the IAEA of pro-Western bias and threatened to not cooperate with them. 

The United States is saying that they are depending on a 5 year old intelligence assessment from 2007 asserting that Iran stopped secret work in developing nuclear arms way back in 2003.  From everything they have been threatening, like the destruction of Israel, the little Satan, and the USA, the big Satan, this sort of thinking is just plain unbelievable! 

Just in the past 3 months, Iran has almost tripled the amount of devices that produce 20% uranium.  They had 700 centrifuges strung together in 4 separate series.  Currently they are running 9,000 centrifuges, a jump from 8,000 one month ago.  Now they are churning it out at a rate of about 14 kg, or nearly 30 lbs  a month.  This comes from the International Atomic Energy Agency  (IAEA).  The IAEA has reported these increases. It is a part of the UN, reporting to the UN General Assembly. It has a staff made up of 2,300 from 100 countries with a 35 member board. 

Of course their weapons-making is not being confirmed by the UN.  The UN is top-heavy today with Middle East countries who are not about to cross Iran while they all vie for power.  Iran is not made up of Arabs but Persians, and they have had their disagreements in vying for power, such as the Iran-Iraq War back in the 80's.   Anyway, they realize that Iran's goal in life is to destroy Israel and they also back that goal  Next would be the USA and its Western culture which is the opposite of their goal in life. The UN is not taking the IAEA's word, at least not for public consumption.

Aluf Meir Dagan, recently retired Mossad chief has commented on a TV news interview that Iran possesses many sites for their nuclear work.  The newspaper sites 3 major ones this morning.

1.Main Natanz Site in central Iran, 25 feet underground, protected  by 2 concrete walls.  This is where the enrichment centrifuges are all concentrated, it is believed. 

2. Fordo facility, 40 miles south of Tehran, Now shifting some operations dug into this mountain site south of Tehran that is more heavily fortified, protected by 330 feet of rock, surrounded by anti-aircraft batteries, other defenses run by Revolutionary Guard.   Has 800 centrifuges enriching to 20% level.  They have about 2,000 more centrifuges partially assembled. 

3. Parchin military compound SE of Tehran where high-explosive tests happened when simulating blasts needed to set off nuclear chain reaction.  To have a working nuclear warhead, highly enriched uranium or plutonium is only part of it.  Tests are needed to make sure containment casings and triggers are working.  The IAEA has asked to see this site and have been denied.  They suspect that high-explosive tests happened here from blasts known about. 

Britain, France, Germany, Israel and other US allies are suspicious that activities have gone past 2007s assessment but not the USA.  Our allies all feel that isolated and sporadic activities may be ongoing as the IAEA has already reported.  I'd bet that Israel feels it's been happening even more than that.

Many fear that Iran will have a nuclear warhead in less than a year.  They've stockpiled 5.5 tons of uranium already enriched to 3.5% levels, enough to power reactors and at least 90% is needed to produce material for a bomb.  They've created about 250 lbs of 20% enriched uranium needed to fuel a medical research reactor in Tehran.

3.5% enriched uranium is enough to turn into cores for 4 warheads if further enriched.  To enrich a single warhead, 4 months with centrifuge equipment is needed says David Albright, nuclear expert.  Their stockpile of 20% is half the amount needed for a warhead.  At the pace today, they will reach that goal by the end of the year.  20% material can be converted to weapons-grade faster than lower level uranium.  It would be a crude device with no means of delivery.  Mounting it on a missile would take another 6 months to a year, he told AP.  Has he considered that another group might be working on this goal? 

Israel feels that there is just one window available to bomb these sites.  Dagan disagrees with Netanyahu in that he would rather the USA do the bombing.  He would like to see a regime change so they wouldn't keep the same goal to destroy Israel-and accept a Jewish state in the Middle East.  It's chancy.  Is the glass half full or half empty?  Iran already has had one try at changing and the people were put down quickly with the USA staying out of it.  Dagan sees it as a futile task for Israel with terrible repercussions.  The USA is also saying not to bomb these sites. 

Oh yes, Iran is the 4th largest oil producer in the world.  It is OPEC's 2nd largest with Saudi Arabia being the 1st.  They certainly do need atomic energy in their country, don't they? 

Resource: Oregonian newspaper page A13, Iran weapons-making not confirmed by U.N. by George Jahn AP 3/18/12
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_program_of_Iran
http://jewishfactsfromportland.blogspot.com/2012/03/aluf-meir-dagan-of-israel-interview-on.html
http://www.iaea.org/newscenter/focus/iaeairan/index.shtml
http://www.iaea.org/About/about-iaea.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves_in_Iran